探讨石油价格、粮食价格及汇率对经济成长率的影响分析-《武汉职业技术学院学报》

文章信息/Info

Title:: On Impact of Price of Petroleum and Food and Exchange Rate on Economic Growth

Author(s):: SUN Er-yin¹ LU Yin-jun² LV Kun-xian¹; 1.Overseas Chinese University, Taichung 40721, China; 2. National Chi Nan University, Nantou54000, China

Keywords:: PMG estimation; group mean; dynamic fixed effect; economic growth rate; substantial petroleum price

摘要:: 粮食与石油是人类生存与发展的基本资源,粮食危机与能源危机都将对经济成长有相当的影响。汇率升贬值亦面临物价稳定与经济成长之抉择。不同于过去文献大多探讨单一因素对经济成长率的影响,同时探讨实质油价、粮食价格及汇率对经济成长率的关系,分别探讨对于高收入与低收入不同经济结构的国家是否会有不同的影响。由实证结果得知,较多的分析采用PMG估计法较为有效。实质油价、汇率、粮食价格对经济成长率存在长期关系,且长期、短期的结果在影响的方向上有差异。若未同时考虑油价、粮食价格及汇率对经济成长率的影响,其所得到的结果将会产生偏差;且不同的经济体结构其实质油价、粮食价格与汇率对经济成长率的反应亦有所差异。故在探讨此议题时应同时考虑实质油价、粮食价格及汇率对经济成长率的影响,亦应对不同经济结构分别探讨其间的关系,始能得到更正确的分析。

Abstract:: Food and petroleum are the resources necessary for the existence and development of human race. Thus, the food and petroleum crises can have enormous impact on economic growth. The rising and falling of exchange rate can lead to fluctuation of CPI and economic growth, which creates a dilemma to policy makers all over the world. Dif原 ferent from previous researches which focus mainly on one certain influencing factor of economic growth, the paper ex原 amines the connection of substantial petroleum price, food price and exchange rate with economic growth of a nation, especially whether they have different influence to that of rich country and poor country or country with different eco原 nomic structure. The PMG estimate method is used in the empirical research. The findings show that substantial Petroleum price, food price and exchange rate have long term relation with economic growth, but the influence is in different way in short and long run. Therefore, without taking the petroleum price, food price and exchange rate all into account, the result can be biased. Meanwhile, economic growth of nations with different economic structure also re原 sponds differently to substantial petroleum price, food price and exchange rate. Thus, further study should be conduct原 ed, taking the factor of economic structure into account so as to attain correct result.