基于GM(1,1)模型的山西省入境旅游发展研究-《武汉职业技术学院学报》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Study on Inbound Tourism Development of Shanxi Province Based on GM（1，1）Model

Keywords:: GM（1; 1）Model; inbound tourism; development research; Shanxi province

摘要:: 山西省是我国历史悠久的旅游资源大省之一,入境旅游方面存在着一定的优势条件和巨大的发展潜力。基于灰色系统理论,以山西省2000—2009年入境旅游统计资料为原始数据,通过建构旅游指标GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型并进行模型精度检验;发现模型预测结果与实际数据高度一致,验证出灰色预测系统在本研究中具有可行性,从而利用该模型对山西省2011—2015年入境旅游指标进行预测,并在预测基础上提出促进山西省入境旅游发展的若干建议。

Abstract:: With long history and tourism resources, Shanxi Province has certain advantages and great potential for the inbound tourism development. Based on relevant statistics on inbound tourism of the province from 2000 to 2009, we construct GM（1，1）gray predictive dynamic model and conduct an accuracy test. The result shows that model prediction value is highly identical with actual data, proving that the gray prediction system is feasible in this study. Then, the model is used to predict the index on the inbound tourism for the following five years （from 2011 to 20150）, and a number of recommendations are given on the basis of prediction to promote the development of inbound tourism in Shanxi province.