基于绝对收入假说的西安城镇居民消费函数研究-《武汉职业技术学院学报》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Research about Xi'an Urban Residents Consumption Function based on Absolute Income Hypothesis

Author(s):: YE Wen-xian; School of Financial and Accounting, Shanxi International Commercial College, Xianyang712046, China

Keywords:: urban residents; consumption function; error correction model; co-integration test

摘要:: 分析西安城镇居民收入与消费性支出的总体情况，依据绝对收入假说建立消费函数模型，进行了数据平稳性检验、协整检验、因果关系检验、经济预测和误差修正模型的构建。通过实证分析发现，西安城镇居民可支配收入与消费性支出呈现高度正相关关系，可支配收入是导致消费性支出变动的重要原因，实际收入每增加1%会使得实际消费增加0.885276%，当短期波动偏离长期均衡时，通过-0.629745的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。根据回归结果预测，2014年到2017年之间的可支配收人依次为：36574元、40070元、43566元、47061元；消费性支出依次为：25960元、28145元、30308元、32451元。

Abstract:: The income and consumer spending of residents in Xi 'an city are studied in the paper. The absolute income hypothesis consumption function model is established. Then, data stationarity test, co-integration test and causality test, economic forecasts are implemented. The error correction model is also built through the empirical analysis. It is found that there is a high positive correlation between the disposable income and consumption expenditure of residents in Xi'an. It shows that the disposable income is an important reason leading to the changes in consumer spending; every 1% increase of substantial incomes will make actual consumption increase 0.885276%. When the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium, -0.629745 adjusting intensity can pull it back to a state of equilibrium. According to the results of the regression forecast, disposable incomes between 2014 to 2017 are as follows: 36574 yuan, 40070 yuan, 43566 yuan, 47061 yuan; consumer spending are 25960 yuan, 28145 yuan, 30308 yuan, 32451 yuan accordingly.